The US Army’s Nightmare: War With China While Helping Ukraine Fight Russia

Previously, US military policy was to prepare to face war on two fronts – one in the Middle East and one in East Asia, probably against North Korea, as the Hermit Kingdom was seen as the starting point. riskiest flash before 9/11. Today, the resurgence of China and its threat against Taiwan, as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have brought the war on two fronts closer to reality. Is the United States prepared for simultaneous contingencies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific?

Taiwan crisis vying for all the attention

It is clear that China is belligerent via its Taiwan entourage. Its navy conducts live-fire exercises with two aircraft carriers to show his anger after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island on August 2. China fired many ballistic missiles near Taiwan in a show of force. The Chinese Navy also simulated a blockade against Taiwan. NineteenFortyFive predicted this activity on August 1st. The Americans responded with a aircraft carrier strike group and at least two other amphibious ships deployed in theatre.

Russia must also be treated

With many military aid packages totaling at least $8.8 billion given Ukraine draining US resources and the need for the navy to push its ships to the limit to respond to China, the future looks murky. Americans may need to set aside money for emergency operations overseas, otherwise known as warfare. In the FY22 National Defense Authorization Act, the Pentagon received only $14.3 billion for contingency operations overseas and that was for the drawdown in Afghanistan and for Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq and Syria.

Domestic political pressures push to end wars forever

The new “two wars” contingency would create a “whole of government” need that would encompass the White House National Security Council, the Pentagon, and Congress. It would force the US government to put thorny issues like domestic politics, the economy, climate change and culture wars on hold or at least adjust the fire on what the US prioritizes. The Americans wouldn’t have the stomach for a long-term war having been reluctant to support “wars foreverin the past and present. There are nationalist supporters of America first in the Republican Party and pacifists in the Democratic Party who are resisting the war. How can the American leadership in the White House hold the country together in wartime when inflation and jobs are front and center and foreign policy is an afterthought?

Defense chiefs acknowledge threats

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Marc Milley and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recognized the two-pronged problem in congressional testimony This year.

“We now face two world powers, China and Russia, each with significant military capabilities, both intent on fundamentally changing the current rules-based order,” Milley said. “We are entering a world that is becoming increasingly unstable, and the potential for significant international conflict between great powers is increasing rather than decreasing.”

But the military strategy is not clear

That’s the threat, but where’s the strategy? The Pentagon released its National Defense Strategy but the White House delayed. President’s The national security strategy is being rewritten again to take into account the efforts of Ukraine and the sound of Chinese sabers. It may not be released until September. Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s defense strategy has unspecified buzzwords and fuzzy concepts such as “built-in deterrence”; ” To make a campaign ” ; and “Sustainable Benefits”. Not forgetting the Ministry of Defense fight against climate change which do not respond to the rise of the great powers.

Can Biden be a juggler of domestic and foreign policy?

Obviously, there are classified versions of these battle plans to refrain from giving too much detail to the enemy, but one has to wonder if the United States is prepared for a two-pronged eventuality. For decades, President Joe Biden has been seen as an experienced man in foreign policy. These crises will require his utmost attention, and Biden will have to juggle domestic and international issues.

Fortunately, Russia and China have few allies and the Americans dozens, but it is clear that these friends are looking to the United States to provide full-time leadership. The strategic underpinnings of the orientation are simply not there at the moment. But it’s not too late to set the strategy – or strategies. One good thing about the 24/7 news cycle and strident social media posts is that it creates pressure on political leaders to act. It may take a full-time pressure campaign to encourage the entire US government to prepare for an “eternal cold war” against Russia and China which is preparing for a high-fire war – a scenario of the Third World War that no one wants.

Now as 1945 Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. EastwoodPhD, is the author of Humans, Machines and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an emerging threat expert and former US Army infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood.

Comments are closed.